National and Subnational estimates for Germany

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally in Germany.

Table of Contents


Expected daily cases by region


Figure 1: Map of the expected change in daily cases

National summary

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 1537 – 5664
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.8 – 3.6
Rate of spread -0.015 – 0.35
Doubling time (days) 2 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.15 – 0.97


Table 1: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 2: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 3: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Regional Breakdown

Data availability

Limitations

Summary of latest reproduction number and case count estimates


Figure 4: Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (bar = 95% credible interval). regions are ordered by the number of expected daily cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required fror elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions with the most cases currently


Figure 5: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in the six regions with the most cases currently


Figure 6: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the countries/regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 7: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all regions. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.

Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in all regions

Figure 8: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all regions. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Latest estimates summary table

Region Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling time (days)
Baden Wurttemberg 48 – 326 Increasing 1.2 – 2.5 2.4 – Cases decreasing
Bavaria 248 – 1644 Increasing 1.4 – 3.1 2.8 – Cases decreasing
Berlin 15 – 107 Increasing 1.1 – 2.2 3.6 – Cases decreasing
Brandenburg 12 – 91 Increasing 1.2 – 2.5 3 – Cases decreasing
Bremen 13 – 96 Increasing 1.5 – 3.4 1.3 – Cases decreasing
Hamburg 40 – 254 Increasing 1.3 – 2.6 3.4 – Cases decreasing
Hesse 36 – 214 Increasing 1.2 – 2.4 3.2 – Cases decreasing
Lower Saxony 40 – 293 Increasing 1.1 – 2.4 3.3 – Cases decreasing
Mecklenburg Vorpommern 4 – 42 Increasing 1.2 – 2.8 2.5 – Cases decreasing
North Rhine Westphalia 188 – 1286 Increasing 1 – 2.1 4.5 – Cases decreasing
Rhineland Palatinate 27 – 185 Increasing 1 – 2.2 4.5 – Cases decreasing
Saarland 32 – 218 Increasing 1.3 – 3.2 0.38 – Cases decreasing
Saxony 24 – 185 Increasing 1.2 – 2.6 3.4 – Cases decreasing
Saxony Anhalt 5 – 45 Increasing 1.1 – 2.3 4.5 – Cases decreasing
Schleswig Holstein 19 – 120 Increasing 1.2 – 2.6 3.4 – Cases decreasing
Thuringia 10 – 75 Increasing 1.4 – 3.1 2.2 – Cases decreasing


Table 2: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each rregion. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95\% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Regional reports

Baden Wurttemberg

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 48 – 326
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 2.5
Rate of spread -0.24 – 0.29
Doubling time (days) 2.4 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.2 – 0.94


Table 3: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 9: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 10: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Bavaria

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 248 – 1644
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.4 – 3.1
Rate of spread -0.058 – 0.25
Doubling time (days) 2.8 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.17 – 0.98


Table 4: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 11: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 12: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Berlin

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 15 – 107
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 – 2.2
Rate of spread -0.35 – 0.19
Doubling time (days) 3.6 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.19 – 0.89


Table 5: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 13: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 14: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Brandenburg

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 12 – 91
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 2.5
Rate of spread -0.077 – 0.23
Doubling time (days) 3 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.17 – 0.93


Table 6: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 15: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 16: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Bremen

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 13 – 96
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.5 – 3.4
Rate of spread -0.11 – 0.53
Doubling time (days) 1.3 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.21 – 0.86


Table 7: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 17: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 18: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Hamburg

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 40 – 254
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 2.6
Rate of spread -0.11 – 0.2
Doubling time (days) 3.4 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.19 – 0.91


Table 8: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 19: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 20: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Hesse

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 36 – 214
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 2.4
Rate of spread -0.21 – 0.22
Doubling time (days) 3.2 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.21 – 0.88


Table 9: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 21: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 22: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Lower Saxony

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 40 – 293
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 – 2.4
Rate of spread -0.21 – 0.21
Doubling time (days) 3.3 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.2 – 0.83


Table 10: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 23: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 24: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Mecklenburg Vorpommern

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 4 – 42
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 2.8
Rate of spread -0.38 – 0.27
Doubling time (days) 2.5 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.25 – 0.78


Table 11: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 25: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 26: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

North Rhine Westphalia

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 188 – 1286
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1 – 2.1
Rate of spread -0.26 – 0.15
Doubling time (days) 4.5 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.19 – 0.85


Table 12: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 27: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 28: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Rhineland Palatinate

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 27 – 185
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1 – 2.2
Rate of spread -0.22 – 0.15
Doubling time (days) 4.5 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.2 – 0.74


Table 13: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 29: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 30: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Saarland

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 32 – 218
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.3 – 3.2
Rate of spread -3.8 – 1.8
Doubling time (days) 0.38 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.25 – 0.38


Table 14: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 31: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 32: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Saxony

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 24 – 185
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 2.6
Rate of spread -0.25 – 0.2
Doubling time (days) 3.4 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.28 – 0.73


Table 15: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 33: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 34: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Saxony Anhalt

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 5 – 45
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.1 – 2.3
Rate of spread -0.49 – 0.15
Doubling time (days) 4.5 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.25 – 0.76


Table 16: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 35: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 36: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Schleswig Holstein

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 19 – 120
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.2 – 2.6
Rate of spread -0.13 – 0.2
Doubling time (days) 3.4 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.2 – 0.93


Table 17: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 37: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 38: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Thuringia

Summary

Estimate
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation 10 – 75
Expected change in daily cases Increasing
Effective reproduction no. 1.4 – 3.1
Rate of spread -0.074 – 0.32
Doubling time (days) 2.2 – Cases decreasing
Adjusted R-squared -0.19 – 0.93


Table 18: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.

Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates


Figure 39: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time


Figure 40: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.

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