Table of Contents
Expected daily cases by region
Figure 1: Map of the expected change in daily cases
National summary
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 1537 – 5664 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.8 – 3.6 |
| Rate of spread | -0.015 – 0.35 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.15 – 0.97 |
Table 1: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 2: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 3: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Regional Breakdown
Data availability
- Case counts by date, stratified by region were downloaded from a publically available source (Abbott et al. 2020; Gehrcke 2020).
- Case onset dates were estimated using case counts by date of report and a distribution of reporting delays fitted to a publically available line-list of cases reported in Germany (Xu et al., n.d.; Abbott et al. 2020).
Limitations
- Line-list data to inform a region specific estimate of the reporting delay were not available.
Summary of latest reproduction number and case count estimates
Figure 4: Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (bar = 95% credible interval). regions are ordered by the number of expected daily cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily cases. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required fror elimination.
Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions with the most cases currently
Figure 5: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in the six regions with the most cases currently
Figure 6: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in the countries/regions expected to have the highest number of incident cases. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Reproduction numbers over time in all regions
Figure 7: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all regions. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence. The dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control.
Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation in all regions
Figure 8: Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset (light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range) in all regions. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Latest estimates summary table
| Region | Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | Expected change in daily cases | Effective reproduction no. | Doubling time (days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baden Wurttemberg | 48 – 326 | Increasing | 1.2 – 2.5 | 2.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Bavaria | 248 – 1644 | Increasing | 1.4 – 3.1 | 2.8 – Cases decreasing |
| Berlin | 15 – 107 | Increasing | 1.1 – 2.2 | 3.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Brandenburg | 12 – 91 | Increasing | 1.2 – 2.5 | 3 – Cases decreasing |
| Bremen | 13 – 96 | Increasing | 1.5 – 3.4 | 1.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Hamburg | 40 – 254 | Increasing | 1.3 – 2.6 | 3.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Hesse | 36 – 214 | Increasing | 1.2 – 2.4 | 3.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Lower Saxony | 40 – 293 | Increasing | 1.1 – 2.4 | 3.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Mecklenburg Vorpommern | 4 – 42 | Increasing | 1.2 – 2.8 | 2.5 – Cases decreasing |
| North Rhine Westphalia | 188 – 1286 | Increasing | 1 – 2.1 | 4.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Rhineland Palatinate | 27 – 185 | Increasing | 1 – 2.2 | 4.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Saarland | 32 – 218 | Increasing | 1.3 – 3.2 | 0.38 – Cases decreasing |
| Saxony | 24 – 185 | Increasing | 1.2 – 2.6 | 3.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Saxony Anhalt | 5 – 45 | Increasing | 1.1 – 2.3 | 4.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Schleswig Holstein | 19 – 120 | Increasing | 1.2 – 2.6 | 3.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Thuringia | 10 – 75 | Increasing | 1.4 – 3.1 | 2.2 – Cases decreasing |
Table 2: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time in each rregion. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95\% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Regional reports
Baden Wurttemberg
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 48 – 326 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 2.5 |
| Rate of spread | -0.24 – 0.29 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.2 – 0.94 |
Table 3: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 9: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 10: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Bavaria
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 248 – 1644 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.4 – 3.1 |
| Rate of spread | -0.058 – 0.25 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.8 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.17 – 0.98 |
Table 4: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 11: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 12: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Berlin
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 15 – 107 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 2.2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.35 – 0.19 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3.6 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.19 – 0.89 |
Table 5: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 13: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 14: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Brandenburg
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 12 – 91 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 2.5 |
| Rate of spread | -0.077 – 0.23 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.17 – 0.93 |
Table 6: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 15: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 16: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Bremen
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 13 – 96 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.5 – 3.4 |
| Rate of spread | -0.11 – 0.53 |
| Doubling time (days) | 1.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.21 – 0.86 |
Table 7: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 17: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 18: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Hamburg
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 40 – 254 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 2.6 |
| Rate of spread | -0.11 – 0.2 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.19 – 0.91 |
Table 8: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 19: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 20: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Hesse
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 36 – 214 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 2.4 |
| Rate of spread | -0.21 – 0.22 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.21 – 0.88 |
Table 9: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 21: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 22: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Lower Saxony
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 40 – 293 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 2.4 |
| Rate of spread | -0.21 – 0.21 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3.3 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.2 – 0.83 |
Table 10: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 23: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 24: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Mecklenburg Vorpommern
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 4 – 42 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 2.8 |
| Rate of spread | -0.38 – 0.27 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.25 – 0.78 |
Table 11: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 25: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 26: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
North Rhine Westphalia
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 188 – 1286 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 2.1 |
| Rate of spread | -0.26 – 0.15 |
| Doubling time (days) | 4.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.19 – 0.85 |
Table 12: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 27: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 28: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Rhineland Palatinate
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 27 – 185 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1 – 2.2 |
| Rate of spread | -0.22 – 0.15 |
| Doubling time (days) | 4.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.2 – 0.74 |
Table 13: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 29: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 30: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Saarland
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 32 – 218 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.3 – 3.2 |
| Rate of spread | -3.8 – 1.8 |
| Doubling time (days) | 0.38 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.25 – 0.38 |
Table 14: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 31: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 32: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Saxony
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 24 – 185 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 2.6 |
| Rate of spread | -0.25 – 0.2 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.28 – 0.73 |
Table 15: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 33: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 34: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Saxony Anhalt
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 5 – 45 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.1 – 2.3 |
| Rate of spread | -0.49 – 0.15 |
| Doubling time (days) | 4.5 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.25 – 0.76 |
Table 16: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 35: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 36: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Schleswig Holstein
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 19 – 120 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.2 – 2.6 |
| Rate of spread | -0.13 – 0.2 |
| Doubling time (days) | 3.4 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.2 – 0.93 |
Table 17: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 37: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 38: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Thuringia
Summary
| Estimate | |
|---|---|
| Cases with date of onset on the day of report generation | 10 – 75 |
| Expected change in daily cases | Increasing |
| Effective reproduction no. | 1.4 – 3.1 |
| Rate of spread | -0.074 – 0.32 |
| Doubling time (days) | 2.2 – Cases decreasing |
| Adjusted R-squared | -0.19 – 0.93 |
Table 18: Latest estimates of the number of cases by date of onset, the expected change in daily cases, the effective reproduction number, the rate of spread, the doubling time, and the adjusted R-squared of the exponential fit. Based on the last 7 days of data. The 95% credible interval is shown for each numeric estimate.
Reported and estimated cases by date of onset and time-varying reproduction number estimates
Figure 39: A.) Cases by date of report (bars) and estimated cases by date of onset. B.) Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number. Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval. Dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Time-varying rate of spread and doubling time
Figure 40: A.) Time-varying estimate of the rate of spread, B.) Time-varying estimate of the doubling time in days (note that when the rate of spread is negative the doubling time is assumed to be infinite), C.) The adjusted R-squared estimates indicating the goodness of fit of the exponential regression model (with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit). Light grey ribbon = 95% credible interval; dark grey ribbon = the interquartile range. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by shading with reduced shading corresponding to reduced confidence.
Abbott, Sam, Joel Hellewell, James D. Munday, and Sebastian Funk. 2020. “NCoVUtils: Utility Functions for the 2019-Ncov Outbreak.” - - (-): –. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3635417.
Gehrcke, Jan-Philip. 2020. “COVID-19 Case Numbers in Germany by State, over Time.” Github Repository. Germany. https://github.com/jgehrcke/covid-19-germany-gae.
Xu, Bo, Bernardo Gutierrez, Sarah Hill, Samuel Scarpino, Alyssa Loskill, Jessie Wu, Kara Sewalk, et al. n.d. “Epidemiological Data from the nCoV-2019 Outbreak: Early Descriptions from Publicly Available Data.” http://virological.org/t/epidemiological-data-from-the-ncov-2019-outbreak-early-descriptions-from-publicly-available-data/337.